After Basra

To follow up on my post below about (Iraq: Situation Normal)...the Sadr forces and the Maliki government reached a "truce" whereby Sadr called all the shots: his forces stopped fighting and returned home while keeping their weapons, the Maliki government agreed to release the Sadr forces being held and grant them amnesty, and Maliki agreed to stop arresting Mehdi Army members. The most important part, of course, is that this all transpired because the Maliki government went to Iran to ask for help in dealing with Sadr - and not just to anyone, but to someone the American government considers a terrorist.

In short, the Maliki government looks foolish, Sadr and his forces remain a potent threat, the US and its allies are forced to rely on our enemy to stop the fighting in southern Iraq, the Iraqi people are wondering who won (consensus: al-Sadr) - and John McBush expresses surprise that that an "independent" Iraq would take actions without notifying the US first and once again has his facts wrong.

Heckuva job Nouri al-Maliki - Mission Accomplished!

Update: Warren Strobel at McClatchy reports, "There is no empirical evidence that the Iraqi forces can stand up" on their own, a senior U.S. military official in Washington said, reflecting the frustration of some at the Pentagon. He and other military officials requested anonymity because they weren't authorized to speak for the record.

The failure of Iraqi forces to defeat rogue fighters in Basra has some in the military fearing they can no longer predict when it might be possible to reduce the number of troops to pre-surge levels. "It's more complicated now," said one officer in Iraq whose role has been critical to American planning there.

OK, I'll offer a prediction: the United States military will have an average of 130,000-140,000 troops in Iraq until at least both of my sons (now in 1st and 4th grade, respectively) graduate from High School - the youngest will graduate in 2019.